Initial dip and subsequent bulge are roughly equal in size
Initial dip is larger than subsequent bulge
Subsequent bulge is larger than dip and new normal trend is set
Based on the level of disruption that has already occurred (and is likely to continue as re-openings occur and potentially retract), this third scenario should be the new base case against which planning and budgeting should be considered. This is an unprecedented disruption and the expanded future costs are likely to be larger than the initial decrease currently being realized.
Employers must consider strategies to directly address impacts on healthcare cost to mitigate long-term effects of the pandemic.
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